Drought

What’s the problem with drought?

After a long dry spell, the ground hardens and cracks. A sudden rainstorm drenches the Eastern Shore, and people are glad to get some rain. But the hard ground can’t soak so much water up, and a flash flood sweeps across roads and into buildings. Drought keeps food from growing and the wells from refilling, but it also affects flooding and economic life.

Under **drought conditions**, the hard ground doesn’t let rainwater sink in, so flash floods are more likely.

Under **normal conditions**, the ground sponge allows water to sink in. This reduces flood risk.

What causes drought?

Drought happens when more water is lost than enters the water cycle. As the average temperatures get higher, water evaporates more quickly, and warmer air carries more moisture (think about summer humidity vs. winter dry skin). Clouds form, and a short, intense rainfall pours down. Usually, about 12% of rainfall sinks into the ground to fill wells and aquifers, but in dry conditions, more rain runs off into the ocean.

What does this mean for the future?

*This data is averaged within census block groups and may not reflect the condition of a specific location.

Research shows that for the next 15 years, the temperature will be hotter, and the Eastern Shore will experience more days without any rain. The soil will be drier, and more water will evaporate from soil and plants.

By 2040, the drought will be severe. Temperatures will get higher, with more frequent dry days. If the soil is dry, it becomes hard and compacted, which makes it difficult for rain to soak in. Heat will cause moisture in soil and plants to evaporate and return to the clouds.

2050-2080: As temperatures warm, extreme rain events may happen more often and be more intense, even if average annual rainfall doesn’t drastically increase. Dry extremes will shift to wet extremes because warmer air can carry more moisture. This may lead to short, intense rainfall events, which leads to more flooding.

By 2080, the shallow aquifer could lose over 14 billion gallons of freshwater. That’s the amount of water the Eastern Shore uses in 2.5 years.

By 2100, this pattern may change. Coastal areas experience sea level rise, erosion, and sinking. Most areas along the coast may be permanently flooded before 2100, and the ground will be moderately or extremely wet.

Click here to learn more about the science

What can be done?

PLAN FOR DIFFERENT OUTCOMES

Eastern Shore communities will need to plan for both extreme dry and wet conditions in the next 75 years. Monitoring the soil moisture and conserving water is also important, both for farmers and the communities who depend on them.

CAPTURE WATER

Capturing water from gutters in rain gardens and rain barrels may help slow water down during flash flood events. Residents can build rain gardens and install rain barrels with grants from the Soil and Water Conservation District. Find out more at https://vaswcd.org/landowner-vcap-landing/.

Livability Tool research

The science team researched the groundwater depth and soil saturation to find areas that may need extra help to preserve water resources across the Eastern Shore. Find this data in the interactive Livability Tool.

Explore an interactive StoryMap about wet and dry cycles on the Eastern Shore

Download a poster about drought and flooding trends on the Eastern Shore